Dr. Reinhard Zachau recently spoke with Francisco Castelo Branco, the author of this article, which appears in a Brazilian publication. Read more for the full text in English of this succinct explanation of the complex German political landscape and its ramifications for the rest of the world..
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has all the political conditions to remain at the helm of the country for years to come. Internally, but also externally, it is sufficient for the population to offer her the fourth term and allow her to match the achievements of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. The polls guarantee another triumph, but it will not be possible to carry out the necessary reforms with only a simple majority in parliament. Sewanee University professor Reinhard Zachau explains to The Democrat that "a good result for the Chancellor means getting more than 40% of the votes to make a coalition with the Free Democrats or the Greens. below that percentage the two parties may be chosen to join the government. "
Martin Schulz's candidacy for SPD leadership does not prevent a major government coalition between the Social Democrats and the CDU. In this case, Dr. Zachau understands that "Schulz has to admit defeat and the party chooses another person to be Vice Chancellor."
International issues dominate the election campaign because Germany is the main political actor in the conduct of European Union destinations. Constitutional changes in Turkey and the war in Syria concern German leaders. The CDU candidate ensures that Erdogan's current policy diminishes the chances of Turkish membership of the European Union. In the Syrian refugee crisis, the Chancellor operated "smart changes to have the support of the majority of the population". Reinhard Zachau believes that the "refugee reception was Merkel's biggest success because it has caused a feeling of compassion in people who have yet to deal with Germany’s past."
Merkel's election is also of international importance, especially after elections of the Donald Trump in the United States and Emmanuel Macron in France. The chancellor will be an ally of the new French president and a problem for the new White House tenant because she will be the "most important counterweight in international politics"